Kenya-Somalia diplomatic rift’s impacts on Kenyan trade and commerce relations 2012-2021

Abstract

The diplomatic tension between Kenya and Somalia has a history that can be traced back to various events and incidents. One prominent event that contributed to the rift was the maritime border dispute between the two countries, which began in 2012 and lasted until 2021. The dispute centered around delineating the maritime boundary in the Indian Ocean, particularly the area rich in oil and gas reserves. Both countries claimed sovereignty over the territory, leading to a protracted legal battle at the International Court of Justice. While previous researchers have touched on these diplomatic tensions between these two countries, this study exclusively examined the effects of the Kenya-Somalia diplomatic rift on Kenyan trade and commerce relations. Four objectives guide the study: assessing the effects on Miraa trade, educational exchange and scholarships, export and import promotion, job creation, and skill development. Social conflict theory served as a guide for the investigation. According to the hypothesis proposed by Karl Max in 2016, competition for scarce resources keeps civilization in a condition of constant conflict. Instead of agreement and conformity, it maintains social order through dominance and authority. According to social conflict theory, those in positions of money and power attempt to maintain them by any means necessary, mostly through repressing the weak and impoverished. The target population comprises 820 respondents, including Miraa traders, students, other traders, and professional workers. Purposive sampling was used to choose a sample size of 246 respondents, and questionnaires were used to gather data. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze quantitative data, while theme analysis and coding were used to analyze the qualitative data. The study reveals that the KenyaSomalia rift has negatively affected Miraa trade, educational exchange, export and import activities, job creation, and skill development between the two countries. Resolving the diplomatic rift is crucial to restoring trade and commerce relations, fostering economic growth, and enhancing regional stability. The study found that trade between Kenya, Somalia, and other states in the IGAD region is negatively impacted by the border dispute between the two countries. This mostly happens when states use coercive diplomacy and border closure as the first line of defense and cannot resolve the problems. Coercive diplomatic measures and border closures have the potential to cause economic damage and strained relations between states, which will have an indirect and direct impact on their citizens. Since the issues at stake for the two countries are far more significant than the current fight, the dispute is more political than legal. The study's findings are expected to provide insights for both countries to ease diplomatic tension and address the underlying issues, promoting peaceful coexistence and collaboration that will benefit both nations and the region.